Question everything and become a better investor in the process Uncommon Sense takes readers on a four-century journey; from the dawn of public share ownership (in 1602) right up to today. But this is not simply a history book. It's a book for serious investors. Along the way it reveals the fascinating stories, the market characters and the important financial developments that have sculpted the thinking behind the value investor's craft. Blended throughout the narrative Kemp delivers an array of interesting anecdotes and rock solid logic regarding what works when investing in the stock market, what doesn't, and why. Early in the 20th Century, Charles Dow remarked of Wall Street Operators that 'the more they actually know, the less confident they become.' Continuing in the tradition of that simple, elegant statement, this enlightening and entertaining book will have you thinking, acting and succeeding on your own in your investment endeavours. Learn to question conventional wisdom at every turn and develop a healthy skepticism as you plan your own investment strategies Develop a rich understanding of the stock valuation process Discover the methods that have been used by successful investors from the dawn of the modern stock market (in 1602) right up to today Learn how to interact simply and successfully with markets that are vastly complex and largely inexplicable Uncommon Sense will have you questioning and doubting much that's stated about stock market investing, then developing your own winning strategy based on reason and understanding.

Question everything - and become a better investor in the processUncommon Sense takes readers on a four-century journey; from the dawn of public share ownership (in 1602) right up to today. But this is not simply a history book. It's a book for serious investors. Along the way it reveals the fascinating stories, the market characters and the important financial developments that have sculpted the thinking behind the value investor's craft. Blended throughout the narrative Kemp delivers an array of interesting anecdotes and rock solid logic regarding what works when investing in the stock market, what doesn't, and why.Early in the 20th Century, Charles Dow remarked of Wall Street Operators that 'the more they actually know, the less confident they become.' Continuing in the tradition of that simple, elegant statement, this enlightening and entertaining book will have you thinking, acting and succeeding on your own in your investment endeavours.* Learn to question conventional wisdom at every turn and develop a healthy skepticism as you plan your own investment strategies* Develop a rich understanding of the stock valuation process* Discover the methods that have been used by successful investors from the dawn of the modern stock market (in 1602) right up to today* Learn how to interact simply and successfully with markets that are vastly complex and largely inexplicableUncommon Sense will have you questioning and doubting much that's stated about stock market investing, then developing your own winning strategy based on reason and understanding.

Foreword ixAbout the author xiAcknowledgements xiiiPart I: The limits of reason 10.9 Start thinking for yourself 31. The Pied Piper 92. The art of prediction 213. Why economics will never be a science 294. Forecasting the stock market 355. Does the stock market forecast the economy? 496. Can charts predict? 557. Market timing 658. Are computers the answer? 859. The efficient market hypothesis 9710. Trader or investor? 10711. Realistic expectations of returns 119Part II: Stock screens and value metrics 12512. Where to start: stock screen or triad of analysis? 12713. Don't accept the PE ratio at face value 13514. Earnings growth isn't always a good thing 14515. Why do price to book ratios vary? 15316. Selecting stocks by dividend yield 159Part III: The genesis of stock valuation 16717. It all started in Europe 16918. Time to cross the Atlantic 18519. The adoption of financial reporting 19920. The modern era 209Part IV: 'Calculating' value 21521. Intrinsic value and market price 21722. Earnings and earnings growth 23123. The discount rate 24524. The formulae 265Part V: Beating the stock market 27725. The Durant-Dort Carriage Company 27926. Searching for numeric constants 28327. The human constant 29128. Coin-flipping orang-utans (my first trips to Omaha) 297Appendix A: Why book value differs from economic value 309Appendix B: Debt analysis 311Glossary 317References 321Bibliography 331Index 337