Beschreibung:
This book highlights advances made in parasite transmission modeling, including developments in conceptual frameworks and modeling tools. It also identifies problems that still need to be addressed and details ways forward for addressing these questions.
It is clear that many fascinating problems still remain to be addressed in parasite transmission modelling, from better understanding of transmission processes and natural history of infection to investigating the impact of ecological and spatial scales, climate change, host immunity and social behaviour, parasite-host evolutionary dynamics and parasite community ecology on parasite transmission. This book captures some of the advances made in recent years and provides indications of ways forward for addressing these questions by shedding light on developments in conceptual frameworks and modelling tools as well as the emergence of new data forms for aiding model construction, testing and analysis. Another important advance has been the parallel development of robust computationally-intensive statistical methods to allow model testing and parameterization by aiding the fitting of models to complex data. This is an exciting area of work, which we believe will broaden the scope of mathematical modelling in investigating parasite transmission processes. In particular, we expect this advance will now allow modellers to begin the successful development and analysis of mechanistically-rich models of parasite transmission that will facilitate better integration of the variety of mechanisms increasingly recognized as important in simultaneously affecting transmission, including abiotic processes, trophic and evolutionary interactions, movement in space, and behaviour and even physiology of the individual. We foresee a continuing bright future for using mathematical modelling to clarify parasite transmission dynamics and address problems related to effective parasite control. Ultimately, through this improved application of models to research and management, we expect that parasite control would be an achievable goal bringing benefits to a vast number of our fellow human beings.
Part 1. Modelling Parasite Transmission 1. Progress in Modelling Malaria Transmission David L. Smith and Nick Ruktanonchai Modelling Malaria Transmission, a Historical Introduction Complexity, Parsimony and Robust Descriptions of Transmission Transmission Intensity and Its Estimations Preferential Biting and Uneven Exposure Immunity and the Infectious Reservoir Malaria Transmission in Real Populations Conclusion 2. Vector Transmission Heterogeneity and the Populat ion Dynamics and Control of Lymphatic Filariasis Edwin Michael and Manoj Gambhir Abstract Introduction Lymphatic Filariasis Disease and Parasite Life Cycle Mosquito Vectors of Lymphatic Filariasis Vector-Parasite Infection Relationships Quantifying the Mf-L3 Functional Response in Vector Populations Derivation of Vector-Specific Models of Lymphatic Filariasis Transmission Impact of Vector-Specific Infection Processes on Parasite System Stability, Persistence and Extinction Impact of Vector-Specific Infection Processes on Age Patterns of Infection The Impact of Vector Genus on the Dynamics of Filariasis Control Conclusion 3. Modelling Multi?Species Parasite Transmission Andrea Pugliese Abstract Introduction Structure and Parameters of Models The Model without Direct Interactions Competition among Parasites Normal Approximations Competition and Host Heterogeneity Conclusion 4. Metap opulat ion Models in Tick?Borne Disease Transmission Modelling Holly Gaff and Elsa Schaefer Abstract Introduction Methods Variations within Patches Patch Connectivity The Surrounding Environment Boundary Effects Conclusion 5. Modelling Stochastic Transmission Processes in Helminth Infections Stephen J. Cornell Abstract Introduction Infection in a Single Host Infection among Multiple Hosts Conclusion 6. Modelling Environmenta lly?Mediat ed Infectious Diseases of Humans: Transmission Dynamics of Schistosomiasis in China Justin Remais Abstract Introduction Modelling Schistosome Transmission Model Parameters EnvironmentalData Model Dynamics Modelling Spatial Connectivity Extending the Modelling Framework Conclusion Part 2. Applicat ion of Models to Parasite Control 7. Parameter Estimat ion and Site?Specific Calibrat ion of Disease Transmission Models Robert C. Spear and A. Hubbard Abstract Introduction Local Data A Calibration Example The Posterior Parameter Space Bayesian Melding Conclusion 8. Modelling Malaria Populat ion Structure and Its Implicat ions for Control Caroline O. Buckee and Sunetra Gupta Abstract Introduction Adding Realism to the Basic Framework of the Ross?MacDonald Models Modelling the Effects of Parasite Population Structure Conclusion 9. Mat hemat ical Modelling of the Epidemiology of Tuberculosis Peter J. White and Geoff P. Garnett Abstract Introduction TB Natural History Mathematical Models of TB Transmission Dynamics Modelling the Natural History of TB Vaccination Population Age Structure Interactions with HIV Contact Patterns The Basic and Effective Reproductive Numbers of TB Modelling Strains of TB Host Genetic Factors and Within?Host Modelling TB?Control Strategies Conclusion 10. Modelling Trachoma for Control Programes Manoj Gambhir, María?Gloria Basáñez, Isobel M. Blake and Nicholas C. Grassly Abstract Introduction Antibiotic?Based Control Programmes Methods Results Conclusion 11. Transmission Models and Management of Lymphat ic Filariasis Eliminat ion Edwin Michael and Manoj Gambhir Abstract Introduction Transmission Models and Decisions in Parasite Management Models and Quantifying Intervention Endpoint Targets Models and Design of Optimal Filariasis Intervention Strategies Conclusion 12. Disease Transmission Models for Public Health Decision?Making: Designing Intervention Strat egies for Schistosoma japonicum Edmund Y.W. Seto and Elizabeth J. Carlton Abstract Introduction Model Framework New Model Developments: Incorporating Population Heterogeneity and Connectivity Conclusion Epilogue 13. Modelling Climat e Change and Malaria
Modelling parasite transmission has made enormous strides since the seminal models of Ross for describing malaria transmission developed during the early 1900s. McDonald’s use of the early malaria models to show that killing adult mosquitoes would be particularly effective in reducing infection transmission was a major advance in demonstrating the usefulness of theoretical analysis and population dynamics modelling in particular for guiding parasite control programmes, and since then parasite transmission models have also been used to guide the onchocerciasis control programme in Africa, as well as for investigating best strategies for controlling a host of other parasites, including tuberculosis, trachoma and lately helminth infections, such as schistosomiasis and filariasis. The importance of this work is highlighted by greater understanding of threshold phenomena in transmission dynamics leading to the concept that natural “breakpoints” occur below which parasite systems will go extinct to the roles that worm mating behaviour and infection aggregation can play in both helminth transmission and control. The emerging trend from this work is thus the increasing use of understanding parasite transmission dynamics via the construction and analysis of mathematical models for use in guiding the development of informed parasite control strategies, so much so that this twin objective, viz improving understanding of parasite transmission dynamics and applying models to guide parasite control, has almost become a de facto goal of most recent work in parasite transmission modelling.
We have organized the material in the book into two major sections, the first presenting the state of the art in models aimed at capturing complex or detailed aspects of transmission dynamics beginning with a review of the evolution of modelling malaria transmission. Part II of the book serves to highlight the current use of transmission models in the planning, monitoring and evaluation of parasite control programmes.