1. Truth, Argument, Realism
1.1.Truth
1.2.Realism1.3.Epistemology
1.4.Necessary & Conditional Truth1.5.Science & Scientism
1.6.Faith1.7.Belief & Knowlege
2. Logic2.1.Language
2.2.Logic Is Not Empirical2.3.Syllogistic Logic
2.4.Syllogisms2.5.Informality
2.6.Fallacy
3. Induction and Intellection
3.1.Metaphysics
3.2.Types of Induction
3.3.Grue
4. What Probability Is
4.1.Probability Is Conditional
4.2.Relevance
4.3.The Proportional Syllogism
4.4.Details
4.5.Assigning Probability
4.6.Weight of Probability
4.7.Probability Usually Is Not a Number
4.8.Probability Can Be a Number
5. What Probability Is Not
5.1.Probability Is Not Physical5.2.Probability & Essence
5.3.Probability Is Not Subjective5.4.Probability Is Not Only Relative Frequency
5.5.Probability Is Not Always a Number Redux6. Chance and Randomness
6.1.Randomness6.2.Not a Cause
6.3.Experimental Design & Randomization6.4.Nothing Is Distributed
6.5.Quantum Mechanics6.6.Simulations
6.7.Truly Random & Information Theory
7. Causality
7.1.What Is Cause Like?
7.2.Causal Models
7.3.Paths
7.4.Once a Cause, Always a Cause
7.5.Falsifiability
7.6.Explanation
7.7.Under-Determination
8. Probability Models
8.1.Model Form
8.2.Relevance & Importance
8.3.Independence versus Irrelevance
8.4.Bayes
8.5.The Problem and Origin of Parameters
8.6.Exchangeability and Parameters
8.7.Mystery of Parameters
9. Statistical and Physical Models <
9.1.The Idea
9.2.The Best Model9.3.Second-Best Models
9.4.Relevance and Importance9.5.Measurement
9.6.Hypothesis Testing9.7.Die, P-Value, Die, Die, Die
9.8.Implementing Statistical Models9.9.Model Goodness
9.10.Decisions10. Modeling Goals, Strategies, and Mistakes
10.1.Regression
10.2.Risk
10.3.Epidemiologist Fallacy
10.4.Quantifying the Unquantifiable
10.5.Time Series
10.6.The Future